Does a futurist really use a crystal ball to forecast trends?

(Photo by @8thshot)

I will admit that during these times of endlessly being at home, I *may* have started re-watching old episodes of Charmed on Netflix. (Stop judging.) Putting aside the campy antics, you have to admire the consistent battle against what the future will bring and how to best prepare for it. (Tho in our case, we’re not battling demons that can be vanquished with a potion...or are we?). 

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#techtopic

One of the interview questions I love to ask in mock interviews is “Tell me about a time that you had to make a decision without all the necessary information.” Most students hate it. It throws them off-guard.I have had more than one tell me that they don’t make any decisions without all the information in front of them -- which is ludicrous. We make those types of decisions daily - small/easy (like trying a new brand of clothing out) or large/expensive (selecting a painter for your large Victorian home). 

Employers in tech want to know that you can make decisions with imperfect or missing information, because often, that’s what daily life is like, regardless of sector. 

While it’s tempting to assume that leaders have crystal balls or access to oodles of secret information to help them make decisions, it’s actually more of a method than a map. 

Again, this is where I think tech, the scientific method, agile development, etc provide an advantage to those trying to do strategic planning in heavily uncertain times. You could also try learning from those who are called ‘futurists’ to see the frameworks that they use to help guide others in decision making.

So what is a futurist, you ask? 

According to Amy Webb, “A futurist is someone who studies next-order outcomes using signals from the present.”

Want to make more decisions like a futurist? Check out these articles & resources:

• Articles

  • 5 Principles for Thinking Like a Futurist

  • How to do Strategic Planning like a Futurist

  • Getting the Restart Right: How to Lead When Nobody Has a Map

• Resources

  • Frameworks for making future decisions

  • Futurist Resources

Here are some of the Futurists that I follow to keep up on trends & signals & predictions: 

• Juan Enriquez

• Mary Lou Jepsen

• Alison Sander

• Amy Webb

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#space

Sad that the launch was postponed? Check out this article to learn Why SpaceX has to wait until next Saturday to launch 

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Want a Career in Tech but aren’t sure where to start? Take a look at MY COURSE, ‘TECH SEARCH COMPASS’ FOR STEP-BY-STEP SUPPORT

Should I join a startup right now?

(Photo by @Samanthasophia)

The sun is shining. I’ve set up my “outdoor office” (read: picnic table + umbrella), and my Google Nest wifi ensures I can do Zoom meetings outside! Grateful that spring has finally arrived in upstate NY & that I am able to enjoy it. Spring brings hope for a brighter future, which is something we could all use right now. 

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#techtopic + #careertips

I’ve gotten a lot of questions recently about joining startups. Is this really a good time to take this type of career risk? How do I know if I’m cut out for working at a startup? Are startups even hiring or getting funding? What industries should I look at? Let me aim to tackle these questions and I’ll also give you some career actions to take for each. 

1. Is this really a good time to take this type of career risk?

It depends.

Many will tell you Yes, many others will tell you No. Not helpful.

Taking risky steps is always a way to accelerate your career. Sometimes they work really well, sometimes they don’t - but in most cases, the fact that you took a calculated risk (regardless of outcome) is a positive career signal. 

What does help is ensuring you have some type of rubric to evaluate the risk of the opportunity itself, as well as your own personal risk tolerance (which I’ll cover in the next section). 

First, you should aim to understand the following three things:

1. What general stage of company growth is the startup in?

   • The word startup is so mis-used and often both refers to a 5 person company and a 500 person company (and there is great variation in the working experience of these organizations. A great overview article on this suggests aiming for hypergrowth startups to maximize compensation, career trajectory, culture and product/market fit. 

2. Does the startup have a strong management team?

   • One of the biggest reasons I’ve seen startups fail is because the management team was not aligned, or failed to keep everyone else moving in the same general direction. 

3. Does the startup know where they sit on this startup org growth chart? 

   • I love the chart below for showing the target success metric for each funding level across a variety of criteria (including product/market fit; management perspective; value proposition, etc). 

2. How do I know if I’m cut out for working at a startup?

No one can answer this question for you, except you. However, if you are someone who enjoys navigating uncertain work environments, likes to be hyper collaborative, can manage asynchronously, and who is willing to learn from mistakes -- you’re probably well on your way to being a great startup hire. I worked at a 5 person startup and a 500 person startup - both were great, yet challenging experiences. 

1. Identify your risk tolerance. Often used in terms of investing, you should also consider your risk tolerance in terms of career risk. Not taking risks could be even more risky -- and if you are considering a risk in COVID19 times, you should know yourself & your reactions to risk. 

2. Or better yet, start learning how to manage your emotions as working at a startup is like riding a rollercoaster. Love this article on how to navigate the ups and downs (including the sage advice of ‘share your Legos).

3. Are startups even hiring or getting funding? What companies/industries should I look at? 

Yes, startups are hiring in COVID19 times, and yes, they are getting funding. 

1. If you are not already familiar with how startups are funded, I suggest checking out this short primer from Investopedia.

2. Once a company closes a funding round, they sometimes go on a hiring spree (as funding is often used for capital investment, either physical or human). To see who is getting funding, you can check out Crunchbase, Pitchbook, or CBInsights.

3. Wealthfront puts out a yearly list of ‘career-launching companies’ with a specific rubric for evaluating their potential to be on this list. You can check out their methodology here.

4. If I’m interviewing, what questions should I ask? How do I evaluate an offer(s)?

Startup hiring is a whole different ballgame than interviewing at most established companies. They are often aiming for one type of hire, but learn quickly along the way - and may hire you for something else, due to your particular skill set. More to come on how to navigate startup interviewing - for now, here are some great guides to get you started. 

1. Angel.co put together a great shortlist of questions to ask in interviews, based on what your most important criteria is: compensation; career or culture. 

2. To really stand out, I suggest sending a one-pager recap to your interviewer of what you heard them articulate as their biggest pain points, and ideas/projects that you can lead to help them mitigate those concerns. It can be a risky strategy - but if it’s done well, you will have demonstrated that you are able to listen, synthesize and strategize action steps. 

3. For compensation, here are two great guides to check out:

   • This is a guide for how startups should think about comp (so you know what they are thinking).

   • This is a guide from Carta & their free startup equity calculator to help candidates evaluate a startup offer. 

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Want personalized job search strategy tips and career guidance? Take a look at my Career Strategy Session options.

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#awwww

This 1min video is adorable: watch penguins have a ‘day of fine art & culture' at a museum in Missouri.

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Supply chain tech + drone delivery

(Photo credit @jezael)

Snow! In May! Enough said.

Instead, let me share a social distancing haiku from NPR:

All the days blending
together into a stew
not a good stew

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#techtopic

I've been curious about how tech is helping support disrupted supply chains - and much is happening. As supply chain VC Brian Aoaeh points out, "supply chain innovations are really about two things – increasing throughput and increasing profit."

One way to do that is to optimize operations, so it makes sense that UPS just debuted autonomous warehouse robots to boost warehouse productivity. Separately, retailers who invested in inventory management technology will be the clear winners, when so much of in-store business is moving to counter pickup or shipping inventory from the store to the customer. Stores will continue to play a key role in getting products to customers, with real-time knowledge about distributed inventory becoming a key competitive advantage. It'll be fascinating to watch the UPS & CVS drone delivery trials in Florida this month to see if they usher in a new wave of last-mile delivery solutions.

With increased political issues between China & the US, we're also seeing Apple shift production to neighboring Vietnam to avoid further supply chain disruptions by increasing production capacity outside China. And no commentary on supply chain tech can be complete without mentioning the potential for blockchain to help provide transparency and traceability.

As more organizations look to deploy supply chain technology, the providers of that tech are growing their sales teams to meet demand. As huge transportation hubs, Newark, NJ and Atlanta, GA are both cities with supply chain tech ecosystems. This is still a great breakdown of the supply chain ecosystem via CB Insights, even if it's a few years old. And imagine - what will supply chains look like in Q3 as they prepare for Black Friday and the Christmas holiday season?

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#farfuture

And you thought radio waves were just good for listening to music! Down at my alma mater Princeton, they have discovered a new way to control fusion reactions, a small step towards making fusion energy production a reality.

• https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a32389687/radio-waves-stabilize-fusion-reactions/

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Want a Career in Tech but aren’t sure where to start? Take a look at MY COURSE, ‘TECH SEARCH COMPASS’ FOR STEP-BY-STEP SUPPORT